MCP Predictive Market

Query and analyze prediction markets through Claude

Quick Start | Tools | Platforms | Configuration | Plugin Marketplace

What is this?

An MCP (Model Context Protocol) server that aggregates prediction market data from 5 major platforms. Search markets, compare odds, detect arbitrage opportunities, and track predictions through natural language.

Works with Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible client.

Part of the Claude Code Plugin Marketplace.

Quick Start

# Clone and install
git clone https://github.com/EricGrill/mcp-predictive-market.git
cd mcp-predictive-market
uv sync

# Run the server
uv run python -m mcp_predictive_market.server

Add to your Claude config and start querying markets:

"Find prediction markets about AI regulation"

Why Use This?

Feature	Description
Multi-Platform Search	Query 5 prediction markets simultaneously
Arbitrage Detection	Find price discrepancies across platforms
Market Tracking	Build watchlists and monitor odds changes
Platform Comparison	Side-by-side odds for similar questions
Unified Data Model	Consistent market schema across all platforms

Available Tools

Search & Discovery

Tool	Description
`search_markets`	Search markets across all platforms by keyword
`list_categories`	Get available market categories
`browse_category`	Browse markets in a specific category

Market Data

Tool	Description
`get_market_odds`	Get current odds for a specific market
`compare_platforms`	Side-by-side comparison of similar markets

Tracking

Tool	Description
`track_market`	Add a market to your watchlist
`get_tracked_markets`	View all tracked markets with current prices

Analysis

Tool	Description
`find_arbitrage`	Detect price discrepancies between platforms

Supported Platforms

Platform	URL	Specialization
Manifold Markets	manifold.markets	Play money, wide variety
Polymarket	polymarket.com	Crypto, high liquidity
Metaculus	metaculus.com	Science, long-term forecasts
PredictIt	predictit.org	US politics
Kalshi	kalshi.com	CFTC-regulated, real money

Configuration

Claude Desktop Setup

Add to your Claude Desktop config:

Platform	Config Path
macOS	`~/Library/Application Support/Claude/claude_desktop_config.json`
Windows	`%APPDATA%\Claude\claude_desktop_config.json`
Linux	`~/.config/Claude/claude_desktop_config.json`

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "prediction-market": {
      "command": "uv",
      "args": ["run", "--directory", "/path/to/mcp-predictive-market", "python", "-m", "mcp_predictive_market.server"]
    }
  }
}

Claude Code Setup

Add to your project .mcp.json or ~/.config/claude-code/mcp.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "prediction-market": {
      "command": "uv",
      "args": ["run", "--directory", "/path/to/mcp-predictive-market", "python", "-m", "mcp_predictive_market.server"]
    }
  }
}

Examples

Search & Discovery

"Find prediction markets about AI"
"What categories of markets are available?"
"Show me crypto markets on Polymarket"
"Browse politics markets"

Market Analysis

"Get current odds for Manifold market abc123"
"Compare odds for 'Will Bitcoin hit $100k?' across all platforms"
"Show me the probability of a 2024 recession on different platforms"

Arbitrage Detection

"Find arbitrage opportunities with at least 10% spread"
"Are there any markets with significantly different odds across platforms?"
"Show me the biggest price discrepancies right now"

Market Tracking

"Track the Polymarket election market"
"Show all my tracked markets"
"What are the current prices on my watchlist?"

Development

# Clone
git clone https://github.com/EricGrill/mcp-predictive-market.git
cd mcp-predictive-market

# Install with dev dependencies
uv sync --extra dev

# Run tests
uv run pytest -v

# Run specific test file
uv run pytest tests/test_integration.py -v

Project Structure

src/mcp_predictive_market/
├── server.py           # MCP server entry point
├── tools.py            # Tool handler implementations
├── schema.py           # Unified market data models
├── errors.py           # Custom exceptions
├── rate_limiter.py     # Per-platform rate limiting
├── adapters/           # Platform-specific adapters
│   ├── base.py         # Adapter protocol
│   ├── manifold.py
│   ├── polymarket.py
│   ├── metaculus.py
│   ├── predictit.py
│   └── kalshi.py
├── analysis/           # Market analysis modules
│   ├── matching.py     # Cross-platform market matching
│   └── arbitrage.py    # Arbitrage detection
└── state/              # State management
    └── memvid_client.py

Troubleshooting

No results from a platform

Platform API may be rate-limited - wait and retry
Check platform is online: visit the website directly
Some platforms filter certain market types

Arbitrage opportunities not found

Lower the min_spread parameter (default is 5%)
Try broader search terms
Fewer opportunities exist in efficient markets

Market not found

Verify the market ID format (varies by platform)
Ensure the market hasn't been resolved/closed
Check you're using the correct platform name

Related Projects

Claude Code Plugin Marketplace - Discover more MCP plugins
MCP Proxmox Admin - Manage Proxmox VE through Claude
MCP Memvid State Service - Persistent state for MCP servers

Contributing

Contributions welcome!

Fork the repository
Create feature branch: git checkout -b feature/my-feature
Make changes and test: uv run pytest
Commit: git commit -m 'Add my feature'
Push: git push origin feature/my-feature
Open a Pull Request

License

MIT

mcp-predictive-market